tourism

GBTS Q4 and provisional 2023 domestic overnight stays results published

Posted on

Great Britain Tourism Survey (GBTS) the national survey of domestic overnight stay quarter four (Q4) survey results was published this week alongside the provisional results for 2023.  The headlines figures generally show a decline in trips and value in 2023 as compared to 2022, particular around holiday trips, an especially important trip purpose, for well-established popular rural and urban destinations, not least in the main summer season. This downturn is in line with the mainly anecdotal reports received from our largely well-establish, popular rural and urban inland and coastal destination membership. There are of course outlayers and exceptions to every generalised rule.

The full year results are, as ever, subject to normal review as more information becomes available. Beyond that, this year there are apparently some concerns about the new methodology adopted in 2021 a covid disrupted year and subsequently used for 2022 and 2023. Colleagues will recall that there was no GBTS in 2000 during the peak of the covid restrictions.

As a consequence, the methodology is under review and it is now intended to re-run the 2022 and 2023 results, the first two full post pandemic years, once the review is concluded and the methodology suitable adjusted.  This will impact on GB results and on the subsets for all the Home Nations and English regions, all of which will in due course receive revised statistics for both 2022 and 2023. Receiving revised historic data can be problematic depending on what usage the original has already been put to. Revision is unavoidable and preferable to the alternative options, all of which would involve carrying on regardless and compounding identifiable issues in each subsequent year.

Colleagues will already be aware methodology changes made during the covid period means that post and pre covid (2019 inclusive) GBTS reports and results are not comparable. At best most destination managers view this a regrettable and perhaps a little unhelpful when trying to manage an ongoing post-covid recovery. Again it falls into the unavoidable category as change in methodology was overdue and doing it when tourism was in chaos was a good, if not better, time than any other.

I would urge colleagues reading this year’s report(s) not to skip the “technical stuff” at the head of the document.  The short description of the methodical review, in this instance, is critical to the proper interpretation and understanding of confidence levels.  The more detailed material referenced and linked within it will be of greater use to those more directly involved in the routine use and/or production of local tourism statistics.

The Visit Britain/Visit England (VB/VE) version of the report which majors on GB and English regional results, contains links in its introduction to the VisitScotland and Visit Wales reports which giving a similar GB overview and specific to Home Nation data. 

The VB/VE reports summary states:

  • The current data show a decline in 2023 overnight trips by 7% for both Great Britain and England.
  • These declines seem to be driven by holiday trips, which dropped by 14%, and represent the second largest share of trips (32% in Britain and 31% in England).
  • On the other hand, UK overnight stays as part of an overseas trip show an increase of 14% in Britain and 19% in England (implying an increase in outbound trips).
  • In 2023, a city or large town was a destination type with the largest share, 44% in Britain and 45% in England.
  • 45% of overnight trips in Britain / England included serviced accommodation.

And the text in the accompanying graphic tables states:

2023 domestic overnight trips in Great Britain.

  • 117.3m trips (down 7% vs 2022)
  • £30.9bn total spend (down 6% vs 2022 in nominal terms, down 12% in real terms)
  • £264 spend per trip (up 1% vs 2022 in nominal terms, down 6% in real terms)

2023 domestic overnight trips in England

  • 99.2m trips (down 7% vs 2022)
  • £25.7bn total spend (down 7% vs 2022 in nominal terms, down 13% in real terms)
  • £259 spend per trip (up 1% vs 2022 in nominal terms, down 6% in real terms)

The statement regarding the methodology review in the full report makes it very clear that there are particular concerns regarding the last quarter of 2023 and the scale of declines reported between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023. It gives the example of a 20% GB decline in overall trips and this being thought to be improbably and not supported by other sources.  As a consequence the Q4, the report focuses almost entirely on the more robust full year results.

The summary makes reference to what I believe is a new category of accommodation usage introduced in 2021, “overnight stays as part of an overseas trip”. I have no recollection of any such a category appearing in or before 2019 GBTS or UKTS before it.  Having noted a 14% decline in holiday trips in bullet point 2, the summary goes on to say in bullet 3: “On the other hand, UK overnight stays as part of an overseas trip show an increase of 14% in Britain and 19% in England (implying an increase in outbound trips)”.

The bracketed comment “implying an increase in outbound trips” is intriguing. We would of course concur with the assessment and would probably go much further, regarding the very obvious negative impact of domestic outbound travel on domestic tourism. 

Personally, I was taken slightly aback by the comment and the use of the word “implies”.  Based largely upon historic experience of the pre 2020 GBTS data sets, I would have reasonably expected colleague in ONS and the Tourist Boards to know what the outbound trip figure might be, or at least what they might be looking like at this point in the year. More importantly I would fully have expect the annual GBTS report to include data and specific comparative comment on domestic outbound trips, as they traditional did pre pandemic.   The absence of such comment in the 2021 and 2022 report, I am embarrassed to say seems to have passed me by until now, although I don’t appear to be alone in this. I am assuming this may be down to covid and post covid disruption and not due to any lack of interest in key national data on my part.

The outbound data, I had erroneously assumed, was derived from the GBTS survey itself, a fault in memory.  On reflection and on checking, I was reminded that it actually comes from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) and was indeed routinely included within the old style GBTS annual reporting.  I also believe that the revised IPS is undergoing similar methodological review and that some of the data recently available is likely to be re-run (?).  I am therefore assuming (hoping) that the absence of domestic out bound data is an implication of the ongoing methodology reviews on both new survey methodologies, rather than any conscious decision made by the tourist boards partnership not to include contextually vital outbound domestic (IPS run by ONS) comparison figure in the new GBTS annual reports. 

Rather than delaying circulating a reminder of the availability of the latest GBTS annual report and some brief comment on the detail until I have bottomed out what is or isn’t occurring with the domestic outbound figures, something which could take days or even weeks, I am publishing the reminder and commentary now.  I do so with some reluctance and apologies in advance to colleagues in ONS and the National Boards. I have no desire to set hares running unnecessarily or to fallout with colleagues whose work I have the greatest admiration for. I am very hopeful that I have either got entirely the wrong end of the stick or that there is a very good, preferably tempory reason why outbound figure aren’t or can’t be included in the new style GBTS reports. 

If, however, it does transpire that the use of outbound domestic tourism figure has been dropped within the GBTS annual reporting process, I would hope that most colleagues and certainly those in destination management, would agree that this would be a serious retrograde step. Denying, as it does, tourism practitioners and lay statistics users’ easy access, to a single source of vital headline data which puts the performance of UK/GB, Home Nation and English regional overnight trips in their full and proper context. It also forms an important part of the lobbying tool box when seeking to evidence the need for appropriate support at differing levels for domestic tourism.

I will let you know what I find out and what, if anything, might need to be done as a result to ensure this information is included in future GBTS annual reports or, failing that, is made available in a comparable form elsewhere.

The 2023 VB/VE report, including links to the other board’s reports can be accessed at:

https://www.visitbritain.org/research-insights/great-britain-domestic-overnight-trips-latest-results

Furnished Holiday Let and residential housing issues in popular destinations update

Posted on Updated on

Following the Budget Statement at the begin of the month, I gave a brief overview of the tourism related elements of the budget, including plans to abolish Furnished Holiday Let (FHL) rules.  In my comment on FHL I shared my concerns, especially around the impacts on established, larger letting business, an area that I am not that professionally familiar with and that I undertook to research in more detail and report back on. 

I also mentioned that there were two distinctly differing ends to the spectrum of popular opinion in play regarding FHL abolition, ranging from: “this is a disaster for accommodation provision and therefore destinations”, through to, “something needs to be done to combat the negative impacts of the relatively recent explosion in short-lets accommodation provision”.  I suggested the truth probably lies somewhere within the mid-ground but that by inclination and from a purely destination perspective, I would generally lean more towards supporting anything that might genuinely act to redress the residential housing crisis.

Having now looked at the Governments proposal and to be honest, educated myself on some of the finer detail of FHL provision, I find that I was entirely wrong to suggest that on balance there might be some significant social benefit rising from the Government’s plan, albeit at some economic cost.  The more I have looked at the issues involved the more I am convinced that the abolition of the FHL rules is entirely the wrong policy, addressing the wrong issue, in the wrong part of the short-let market. The update that follows hopefully explains and corrects my initial, unintended error, whilst giving a bit more background some possible food for thought for destination mangers and some sincere advice for owner operators caught up a nightmare of HM Treasury’s (HMT) making.

The detailed impacts on the estimated 127,000 registered FHL following the Chancellors budget announcement of the current tax concessions with effect April 2025 are still far from clear and will remain so until the draft regulation is published, “in due course”.  This surprise move, first aired as a possibility only days before the budget, has prompted justifiable concern among a number of trade and other bodies associated with this sector.  They are now raising their concerns about both the likely intended and unintended impacts on those individual owner/operators, on letting businesses that are registered with HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) as FHL (by no means all properties in the short-term letting market). They are also raising justifiable concerns about the future availability and over time the quality of holiday accommodation stock in popular tourist areas and destinations and the probable knock-on effect on the wider tourism industry and the visitor economy in some or all of these areas. 

To put it into context for the majority of those registered as FHLs with HMRC, many of which will have been in business for years and trading before the creation, let alone the explosion in Airbnb type operations, this change of tax treatment is akin to HMRC suddenly deciding to abolish the established tax benefits, private pension arrangements and saving plans of any other entire business sector or “trade”, leaving many business models and personal succession and retirement plans in tatters.  Moreover, HMRC, or more accurately the Chancellor has done so without consultation, at no real notice and with little or no hard evidence to justify, either the ends or the means used to achieve his stated aims.  The only thing it might stop is anyone thinking seriously in future about opening a new or taking on an existing letting business and running it as a professional full-time enterprise.  It will not necessarily deter second home buyers or single property part-time “hobbyists”.

The move was heralded as being necessary to close a “tax loophole”, when in fact the FHL regulation were and still are a legitimate tax scheme. A longstanding tax scheme at that, purposely designed by HMRC to meet the needs of a specific, specialised trade. Notable a trade that, since the scheme’s inception 20 plus years ago, HMRC have actively encouraged eligible businesses to us and engage with.  To describe it now as a “loophole” is frankly bordering on disingenuous. To imply by the use of that phrase that those using FHL status are somehow exploiting a weakness to obtain unfair advantage is itself grossly unfair to the vast majority of registered FHL owner operators.

The quoted figures for the Chancellor’s financial estimates of a tax benefits arising varies significantly. The original figure on budget day (?) of £600m over a 5-year period, starting with a £35m benefit in in 2024/25 rising to £140m in 2026/27 and £245m for 2028/29, would appear to be predicated on HM Treasury (HMT) assumptions of urgent sale of some properties this financial year, presumably to obtain the current capital gains tax (CGT) concessions that are still available until 2025, whilst possibly forgoing the tax concession on trading costs?  The future HMT gains then accelerate as a consequence of both the abolition of the annual trading cost allowances (on fixtures fitting etc.) and the loss of CGT and pension contribution concessions, with the estimated gain build progressively in future years, presumably mainly from increased CGT payments on the gifting or sale of properties and/or businesses.  Subsequently other, sometime significantly lower, tax take estimates have been quoted by HMRC and others.  Whether these are revisions on the original estimates or different estimates of different components of the total package is unclear. Regardless, they only serve to further confuse an already confusing plan that real purpose appears to be to extract significantly more tax from a relatively small professional trade grouping working within a much larger and more diverse short-term letting market. 

Without clarity on what the new regulation will be, it is hard to see how HMT themselves can accurately predict the likely response from the industry, let alone go on to predict the additional tax take arising from it.  Presumably they know what they are planning to do but just aren’t tell anyone the options or the final plan yet?  In the apparent absence of any truly credible financial evidence on FHL, PASC UK (Professional Association of Self Caterers) has commissioning a detailed assessment to support their own and others’ future lobbying efforts.  This information, when available, should prove invaluable. It is to be hoped HMT will readily accept the offer of this evidence and assistance from outside, independent experts.

In addition to the use of the term loophole, there have also been suggestion of abuse of the FHL rules (essentially the claiming of the allowances by those not operating as genuine FHLs). It is conceivable that those few who may have been knowingly abusing the letter of FHL rules or those who may perhaps have abused the spirt by say “trading” more as a tax efficient hobby than as a business venture, may have very little to lose and be inclined to bailout immediately? Bailing out, particular on a single property basis doesn’t necessarily mean selling up, it could just mean carrying on as before just under different less beneficial set of tax rules. However, it is far more complex and painful issue for the vast majority in the FHL scheme who are genuinely trading and, in particular, for those businesses trading at any scale.

Currently running a furnished holiday let business is recognised for tax purposes as a trade largely only by dint of the FHL rules.  If those rules are abolished, how then does this not insignificant body of traders, access the tax concessions available to other similar trades and professions (tools of the trade, vehicles, insurances, training etc.)?  As intermated above, whole lives, livelihoods and significant local businesses have been built, often over many years, around and predicated upon the continuance of longstanding FHL rules and, in particular, capital gains and pension contribution concessions.  The justification for removing these concessions now, seem at best flimsy.  To remove them in the manner and at the pace seemingly proposed seems more like an injustice; potentially yet another injustice of the type that recently the British public have started to becoming all too familiar with.

I am led to believe that abolition of FHL rules is not being addressed within the Finance Bill to be tabled on 16 April, as we might reasonably have expected.  Why that is and how and when the changes to FHL are to be dealt with (if at all?) remains a bit of a mystery. Has there been a change of heart or pause for more thought already?   Unless and until the draft regulation is issued (with or without prior or post consultation) business operators would I suggest be very unwise to make any firm decisions on their immediate or future plans, based purely on the Chancellor’s announcements and the flurry of business, trade and news media reporting. 

FHL regulations aren’t in themselves that complex, their complexity lies in their interrelationship with and direct impact on all the other tax affairs of the individuals involved. Most notably, for many of professional traders involved, the treatment for capital gains on their major assets and also their assets’ treatment for pension pot purposes. Once the new regulations are issued, there may of course be very limited time and, potentially, a more limited/overcrowded market (?) for knee jerk but legitimate responses, like the sale of some or all of a portfolio of FHL properties before the April 2025 deadline.  Feeling pressured to sell some or all parts of a business in haste, in order to try and achieve the quite reasonably, long expected financial return offered under the FHL rules is one thing, doing so in the next year only then to potentially find there been a change of direction and there was or is now no pressing need to have done would be quite another.

There are also multitude of “what ifs” and unknowns yet to be addressed.  For example: the treatment of properties never built or intended for alternative residential usage like holiday lodges and apartments but also including shepherd’s huts, treehouse and glamping which can and do all full under FHL rules.  Or the rights and wrongs of a blanket application to properties purposefully built or converted with restricted planning consent that precludes their use for residential purposes.  Or thorny issues, like the potential disincentive to invest in to maintaining the product quality, or the obvious, to us at least, problems of the style, nature, price level or location of many but not all holiday let properties. Factors that make many, properties, particularly within the longer and more established letting stock, largely or totally unsuitable to first time buyer or local working age, or family residential usage.

In the case of stock unsuitable for local residential usage, forcing them out of the FHL market would only serve to facilitate many of them becoming, oft vacant second homes or less well unregulated and often far less welcome Airbnb type operations. Certainly, the aim of removing FHL concessions should not be to try and force the closure of the, more often that not, fulltime, all year round, professional traders and do so in favour of a further glut of gifted amateurs, often unregulated and more likely to be part-time, seasonal provision. That isn’t progress it is the route to anarchy, particularly if domestic tourism wishes to be regarded as an industry and an industry that has accepted standards, cohesive organised approaches, that is well coordinated at every appropriate level and is capable of delivering consistently good products and services, everywhere.

An unintended shift in who owns and/or who operator or doesn’t operate short-term lets isn’t going to help to correct owner occupier or long-term rental housings supply issues.  It could, almost certainly would do far more harm to communities than good.  Especially in rural and/or urban honeypot location where the affordable residential housing, residential work force, resident community and residential public and private service balance is now already often badly out of kilter.  So out of kilter that, without effective intervention, there is a serious danger of it getting to the point at which a lack of authenticity, lack of staff and lack of product capacity combined starts to kills off completely the appeal and restricts or denigrate the communities, products and services that the visitors come to enjoy. Maintaining communities and a sustainable residential workforce is as much tourism and economic issue as it is a social on community concern.  It’s a common mistake, usual made outside the areas impacted, to view them as complete separate and often competing issues.  They are conjoined and balance is the key.

Meanwhile, following a forthright lobbying effort there is a possibility that the current Government might change or amend its approach before the General Election, or that a new or different Government may adopt a different economic strategy and/or seek to fill budgetary holes from other sources, allowing them to rescind the planned abolition of the FHL rules after the election and before the April 2025 implementation date, or possibly soon after.  While there can be absolutely no certainty unless and until such a change of direction happens, the genuine possibility of an about face, prompted by the unusual circumstances of economic conditions and of a looming General Election, can’t be ignored.  In my view it gives further reason to recommend that professional furnish holiday let owners and operator bide their time for as long as possible and think very carefully before making any irreversible decisions on how to react to this March Budget’s announcement.

The now defunct Officer for Tax Simplification (OTS) in its report and recommendations on FHL was unconvinced that tackling FHL alone would address the much wider problem of second homes and Airbnb type usage.  Nonetheless, as was their remit they made some recommendations around simplifying the existing scheme which is an outlier or special case for a relatively small number of businesses.  In trying to address FHL, they suggested a differentiation between small operators and larger letting businesses offering a two-tier approach with a “bright-line test” (a clear and objective rule that leave no doubt) to distinguishes between those who should and those who should not legitimately continue to benefit from a revised FHL regime, as opposed to abolition for all. 

Headline elements for the test suggested by their report were:

  • A minimum number of properties let
  • Letting on a short-let basis only
  • No personal use of the let
  • A level of personal time devoted to the property letting business and service provided.

The principle of bright-line test is now being suggested in some quarters as a potential alternative to abolition.  This seemingly plausible compromise solution has some significant problems associated with it, or more accurately critical faults with its predictable and therefore most likely implementation.   The OTS report gave a few ill-considered, almost “off the cuff”, suggestions around what the test might or might not include. In, particular, it suggested what the potential scale might be based broadly on a minimum of 5 letting properties, regardless of bed spaces, usage or turnover.  “Letting properties” or even “letting units” sounds plausible but in reality, it is a pretty meaningless measure of the true scale of a letting business, given all the other variables at play from bed spaces to quality and standard, through to occupancy level and length of letting season.   It is ironic that the key element of the suggest bright-line test for FHLs turns out to fail to meet the basis definition of a bright-line test I.E. an unambiguous, objective rule.  Before its abolition OTS itself was forced to agree with PASC UK that their report’s suggestions where seriously flawed and would not achieve their intent.  Sadly, it would appear that OTS by then had no time or the inclination to officially correct their unintended errors (?). 

There is now a major pitfall in broadly supporting the adoption of the OTS recommendations for a bright-line test.  In all likelihood, if persuaded, Government would default to the line of least resistance, adopting both the principle and the official but flawed, essentially, off the cuff “proposals” made in the OTS report in their entirety.  Unless the Government were willing and able to consider and then adopt a far more nuanced definition of scale, say involving properties, bed spaces, usage, occupancy season length and/or turnover, only a tiny percentage of the estimated 127,000 professional operators in the FHL scheme would pass the, back of a fag packet, suggested first bullet of test that OTS made.  Since OTS no longer exists, who now confirms to the satisfaction of HMT that their original suggestions were indeed flawed and who works up the suitably nuanced alternative within Government? Adopting a far more consider approach means resource, consultation and critically sufficient time to do the consideration; none of which are readily available, especially time to either an outgoing or potential new incoming Government both of which will almost certainly be seeking quick wins in the closing or open months (typically 100 days) of their administrations.  Support bright-line proposals as they stand is case of, be careful of what you wish for, or beware the laws of unintended consequence.

It is a judgement call but unless and until the this or any future Government have firmly rejected any call to rescind the ablution of FHL rules, I would urge colleagues to resist any obvious temptation to suggest the adoption of the bright-line test as a plausible alternative to the abolition or retention of existing FHL rules. Retention has to be the first and preferably only objective sought until it is achieved or is no longer a viable lobbying option. In addition, if and when bright=line tests are raised, as they are almost certainly bound to be over the coming weeks and months, please consider mentioning to anyone and everyone who will listen that while the principle outlined by the OTS may be sound, the off the cuff, untried and untested potential approaches “suggested” rather than officially “proposed” in the OTS report are seriously flawed.  So seriously flawed that if adopted without radical revision, they would do nearly as much harm, if not more, than that of the proposals for the total abolition of the FHL rules. PASC UK are without doubt the undisputed experts on all of these matters, should you need to seek further much more detailed information.

Personally, I find it disappointing that Government appears to have chosen to latch on to the abolition of the FHL rules and publicly promote their demise as the desired means of addressing residential housing issues found in many destinations. Particularly, when all the other evidence available suggests that the real driving force behind the move was an urgent requirement to generate a quick tax fix, to help balance financial forecasts and, thus, facilitate popularist tax give aways elsewhere in the system. 

It is all the more disappoint when you consider that all the other potentially effective measures in combination, like changes to use class orders for short-term lets within planning regulation and a registration scheme for short-term holiday lets, that have been in train and consulted upon to death over many years, have yet to be finally pronounced upon, let alone adopted (latest forecast for long awaited announcements on both is now by mid-July).  Other much needed changes like the outlawyering of no-fault evictions, that already been enacted are now not to be implemented until after major reforms to the Courts are completed, I.E. kicked down the road to well beyond the next election and, thus, potentially far enough away to ignore for now and far enough for it to potentially become someone else’s problem not mine. The Chancellor’s proclaimed desire to satisfy the urgent need to address the residential housing crisis via the abolition of FHL rules aired in the Budget Statement now seem to me to ring a little hollow, especially given the rest of Government’s complete lack of urgency on the matter elsewhere.

That said, bring in legislation or changing regulation in haste like the proposal to abolish FHL tax rules, generally results in poor legislation or ineffective regulation and is therefore almost always ill-advised, poor practice. Bring in legislation or regulation in haste and doing so, apparently for reasons other than those you are claiming, is something far in a way worse than just poor practice. Whether the FHL decision is actually just a smoke and mirrors based tax grab, or to what degree the main purpose of changes has been misrepresented for PR/political reasons, or indeed how that misrepresentation, if true, could or should be viewed, I will leave to others to judge.

I hope that the current Government can now find both the humility to admit the proposals to abolish FHL rules might be ill-conceived and to find the financial headroom elsewhere in the budget to allow them to rescind the proposals at the earliest opportunity.  Preferably well before too many good and much needed professional traders are spooked into rashly abandoning FHL provision in the coming 12 months.  The Government are certainly coming under considerable pressure to do so. Failing that it is to be hoped that an incoming new Government, of whatever colour, will have both the sense and financial manoeuvrability available to them to abandon the FHL changes. Given that by that stage it could well be someone ese’s bad idea, there is then no political capital to be lost from it and potentially much to be gained.  

This and any other future Government also undoubtedly needs to get to grips with both the provision of more residential housing and sensible controls and balances between short-term holiday and long-term residential letting, especially but not exclusively in popular domestic holiday destination. The means have or are seemingly about to been agreed, it just needs a Government, any Government, willing to implement them, regardless of the flak they will attract from among others, second and holiday home owners.  Abolishing FHL rules, either in isolation or as part of that wider package of measure, is the wrong tool, hitting the wrong segment of the short-term holiday let market, in the wrong way.  If pursued as currently proposed, it will do far more harm to the visitor economy and, thus, to local communities, than it will do good to those communities via any forlorn hope of it releasing a wave of affordable properties back into the local residential rental or owner occupier housing markets. 

Thoughts on headline UK economic performance and domestic GBTS third quarter 2023 results.

Posted on Updated on

Wednesday’s announcement that January’s inflation rate held steady at 4% against December’s rate, itself an unexpected marginal increase, was somewhat disappointing.  As was yesterday’s announcement that the UK economy had slipped into a technically recession (two negative quarters in succession) in the latter half of 2023, although thankfully at a very shallow level.  As ever these monthly and the latest quarterly estimates are subject to later revision, either way, as more detailed data becomes available.

Despite the disappointing news, the general consensus remains that the economy is still recovering from, among other things: inflation, increased interest rates, higher fuel and energy costs and a cost-of-living crisis, albeit, now it seems, recovering at a marginally slower pace than previously predicted or hoped for.   In response to the inflation rate announcement, and clearly already aware of recessionary announcements about to be made, the Governor of the Bank of England (BoE) suggested on Wednesday that expectations in some quarters of an early cut in the base rate was premature. 

BoE’s base rate remains the key tool in managing inflation and achieving the Government’s and the BoE’s target of 2% inflation. Returning to the glory days, of a pre-mid 2022 sub 1% base rate (2009 to May 2022) isn’t currently even an aspiration, with something in the order of 4% base interest rate being a more realistic 5-year (and well beyond?) ambition.  Interest rates are the key tool in managing the economy because for the vast majority they dictate how much disposable income is left in the average household’s pocket after unavoidable living costs, like mortgages, are covered and, hence, what can be spent on discretionary activities.  In its turn suppressed demand acts as, among other things, a break on inflation and higher wage demands.   As we are all only too well aware, discretionary activities and discretionary spending encompasses every aspect of the visitor economy from a pint or meal out to events, shows, theatre, through to days out, short breaks and longer holidays and much of the ancillary spending that it all entails. The visitor economy unfortunately sits in the eye of the now slowly waning economic storm.

Greater minds than mine and yours can agonise over the detail and the twists and turns of their implications of the headline economic news for the wider UK economy. For our purposes in domestic tourism, it is probably sufficient to note that the recovery is still underway but, as we had long since  determined, it isn’t going to reach the tipping point at which the cost of borrowing and the cost of energy, goods, supplies and services for both consumers and businesses and wage pressures on business are going to fall sufficiently far, or sufficiently fast enough to generate the levels of disposable income needed to trigger a marked improvement in the overall performance for the coming 2024 shoulder and main summer seasons, over and above the performance experienced in 2023. For 2025, perhaps but too early yet to call? Meanwhile, there is attitudinal evidence that main, often overseas holidays, are being prioritized, and increasingly, if necessary, at the direct expense of other, usually domestic based, visitor economy activity. A potential double whammy for the domestic industry?

Less disposable income can but doesn’t necessarily always mean markedly lower visitor volumes but it generally does mean restricted activity, shorter duration and all most always less or more carefully target spending (value). Consumer confidence is also critical factor.  Confidence tends to lag someway behind the economic reality. While this year the certain prospect of general election and the political manoeuvring and uncertainties these generate and then magnifies, also tend to add to public uncertainty and further dent consumer confidence. Unless and until there is much more positive economic news and more political clarity, consumer confidence is likely to remain unusually subdued during 2024.

Certain individual businesses, certain sectors, certain destination types or locations, did of course do relatively well in the internal domestic tourism market in 2023.  While, worryingly and at some yet indeterminant direct cost to the UK’s visitor economy, domestic outbound tourism values and volumes recovered strongly toward, or in some case to, or beyond 2019 levels. This said, it is indisputable that many other (the vast majority?) of domestic tourism businesses did rather less well in 2023 than the during the immediate post-covid domestic spike and certainly less well than they needed to do in order to sustain a fragile recovery to anything like pre-covid levels or, critically, to make good their own more recent additional costs.

The hard evidence to support these assertions, is like much else in tourism, currently thin on the ground, but there is plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest and hard evidence slowly emerging, that investment in all aspects of business is being curtailed from: promotion through staff numbers and training, to refurbishment and development. Measures like adopting shorter hours, opening on fewer days of the week, deploying fewer staff when open and/or a general return to old patterns of seasonality are all on the increase.  These are the very things that the domestic tourism industry, the National Tourist Boards and Government and Government Departments have worked to try to address and rectify over the last 20 plus years. Worryingly many of these potential “knee jerk” but necessary measures undermine the tourism industry’s contribution to the economy and local employment. That isn’t good news from a national lobbying, let alone from the real world local economic prospective.

If the legacy of the post-covid and recent economic crisis is to catapulting the domestic offer back, even in part, to its pre-2000 (pre mid 1990s?) state, then that would be a local, regional and national social and economic disaster.  Fixing the economy as soon as practically possible is clearly a key part of the solution, but also addressing some well-known and longstanding structural and policy issues that have become more, rather than less critical since the 2020 covid pandemic wouldn’t now go amiss. I will not bore members and others with the full list as hopefully you are as, if not more, aware than I am of the key national strategy and policy weaknesses. If you are unsure, then please ask me.

If the problems of a weaker or truncated and, therefore, less appealing offer are as wide spread as we suspect (know but can’t yet formally evidence), then that this is a serious retrograde step for the domestic tourism industry. Another generally lacklustre season for the average tourism/visitor economy business, in the average destination, targeting the average demographic and average UK customer is not particularly good news for the ubiquitous tourism industry, nor is it, good news for the multitude of local visitor economies underpinned by tourism and, thus, nor is it good news for the UK in general as it struggles with economy recovery. Whether the current or any other Westminster Government will have the wisdom to understand that fixing the economy in general is only the first step needed to fully fix the domestic tourism industry, remains to be seen. 

The very real prospect of a major change in Government does give us a once in a decade or two, opportunity to revisit and refresh some of the longstanding strategic issues.  For example, Treasury’s insistence on regarding domestic tourism as a general economic displacement activity and therefore seldom worthy of targeted publicly funded support.  Or specifically their reluctance to understand that the choice isn’t a simple false dichotomy between spending money somewhere in the visitor economy in the UK or spending the same money on something, somewhere else in the UK economy, ergo no real loss or gain to the UK as a whole and therefore no real grounds for public intervention for domestic tourism.  Since as early as the mid 1970’s it has been a trichotomy with a strongly competing and a far more logical alternative to either spending on tourism or other things at home; that of spending your annually allotted tourism pounds in the visitor economies abroad. The sums involved in outbound domestic tourism have now grown so large that even a few percentage point shift in favour of purely domestic activity would make a significant difference to local and UK’s economic performance.

Accepting, as we must, that some but by no means all of the money spent by UK residents (an estimated £58.5bn in 2022 alone) ended up being retained in the UK by a number of generally large and well placed UK based companies including: travel agents, travel companies and some air and sea transport providers, there remains an obvious and very large economic issue. Surely no sane Government, particularly in a new post Brexit environment, should ignore clear opportunities to try harder to retain more domestic tourism domestically? Unfortunately, to my knowledge at least, largely ignoring it is precisely what has been happening and by slow but fairly regular increments increasingly so over the last three decades.  

By a rather timely coincidence, the key 2023 third quarter Great British Tourism Survey Results (GBTS) have just been published.  Figures for domestic overnight tourism in Scotland, Wales and England taken across the board show that less volume was generally achieved in these key main summer holiday months of July to September in 2023 as compared to 2022. However, notably while year to date volumes held real, as opposed to nominal unadjusted, values generally fared less well.  The performance is worrying, albeit given the thrust of some of my comments above, hardly unexpected.

Rather than me detailing or trying to analysing the GB and home nation variations within that, I would urge colleagues to find the time to look at either the VB/VE statistics for GB and England which include English regional break downs, or the equivalent Visit Wales or Visit Scotland reports as appropriate. As ever I was struck by the scale and, I feel, the underappreciated role and, potentially therefore, the under exploited value of Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR).  In economically challenging times VFR may have a potentially greater role in driving much needed ancillary spend noting of course that VFR does automatic or always equate to staying with relatives and friends.  

The full report itself (containing links for Scotland and Wales data) can be accessed at: https://www.visitbritain.org/research-insights/great-britain-domestic-overnight-trips-latest-results .

For your immediate reference the summary paragraph from the VB/VE report is copied below: 

In Q3 2023, there was a decline in domestic overnight trips compared to Q3 2022, the trips were shorter and the spend on these trips was lower. 2023 YTD figures show also a decline in visits and real spend vs 2022, although to a smaller extent.

Great Britain

• In Q3 2023, there were 35.7 million overnight trips in Great Britain (down 4% vs Q3 2022) made by British residents between July to September 2023. These trips lasted a total of 112.2 million nights (down 9% vs Q3 2022) and contributed a total of £9.6bn in spend (down 7% vs Q3 2022). • In Q3 2023, British residents spent on average £268 per their domestic overnight trip (down 3% vs Q3 2022) and £85 per night of their trip (up 2% vs Q3 2022). Their trip in Great Britain lasted on average 3.1 nights (down 5% vs Q3 2022). • 2023 year to date (YTD) Great Britain visits were down 1% on 2022 YTD, with spend up 2% in nominal terms, although down 6% in real terms. The number of nights down 7% on 2022 YTD. • In terms of trip purpose of overnight trips in Britain in Q3 2023, visiting friends and relatives remained fairly in line with Q3 2022 (just 1% down), while holiday trips declined by 12% (despite the decline, keeping the largest share, 37% of all Great Britain overnight trips).

England

• In Q3 2023, there were 29.8 million overnight trips in England (down 5% vs Q3 2022) made by British residents between July to September 2023. These trips lasted a total of 92.3 million nights (down 9% vs Q3 2022) and contributed a total of £7.8bn in spend (down 10% vs Q3 2022). • In Q3 2023, Great Britain residents spent on average £262 per trip in England (down 4% vs Q3 2022) and £85 per night of their trip (down 1% vs Q3 2022). Their trip in England lasted on average 3.1 nights (down 4% vs Q3 2022). • 2023 year to date (YTD) England visits were down 2% on 2022 YTD, with spend up 1% in nominal terms, although down 7% in real terms. The number of nights down 6% on 2022 YTD. • In terms of trip purpose of overnight trips in England in Q3 2023, visiting friends and relatives remained fairly in line with Q3 2022 (just 1% down), while holiday trips declined by 15% (despite the decline, keeping the largest share, 36% of all England overnight trips).

Note: All value comparisons are in nominal terms, not taking inflation into account, unless otherwise stated. Great Britain Tourism Survey – VisitEngland, VisitScotland and Visit Wales

Digital Markets, Competition and Consumer Bill (UK wide), Price Drip Feeding and Fake Reviews in Tourism.

Posted on Updated on

You may have seen a flurry of recent media report concerning the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumer Bill (DMCCB) first introduced last April and making way through Parliamentary with the target date for UK wide introduction (but not necessarily immediate enforcement) later in 2024. This follows a Department for Business & Trade (DBT) press release update issued on 24 January, the key comments of which is that the Department “will officially add fake reviews to a list of banned business practices, outlaw dripped fees that are unavoidable for consumers and ensure that businesses provide clearer labelling for prices on supermarket shelves.” (my added emphasise not DBT’s).   The Bill covers all industry sectors, but it does have particular resonance to travel, tourism, leisure, culture arts, theatre, live performances, events and retail and therefore, to much of the wider visitor economy.

None of the announcement is absolutely new but it serves to confirm, following consultation and some amendments to the Bill in its passage through the two House of Parliament (Lord yet to complete and Commons, final consideration to follow that) what DBT now intend to include, or not, in the final Bill.  A Bill that will dictate what is included in the guidance to all industries that the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), a non-ministerial government department, must then in due course apply.  The Bill is probably now sufficiently well developed to be swept up in the dissolution of Parliament process, should an earlier general election be called, before the currently anticipated “second half of 2024” date indicated by the PM.

The Bill itself aimed to: introduces a new digital marketing regime, strengthens consumer protections and improve CMA’s investigation and enforcement powers.  Powers that will including the ability to impose penalties directly without, long, slow recourse to the Courts and significantly increased upper limits for penalties for larger players in the digit market place.  What then, if anything, does the latest press release actually tell us or confirm?

Fake review, as expected, are to be “added to the list of banned practice” and critically “with webhosts held accountable for reviews on their pages”.  I doubt colleagues in destination management or in tourism businesses more generally would oppose either of these proposed actions.  However, like me, many would recognise that accountability, is not yet an as well-established general principle for all platforms for all product sold or promoted within digital market place, as it perhaps should be? Many well-known online accommodation platforms having no legal and arguably take little moral responsibility for the accuracy or indeed basic safety of the product they list.  If they can legally list properties without ensuring that they have basic permissions and safety checks in place, then I am not entirely sure what “being held accountable for reviews” might actually means or achieve in practice. My view may be jaundiced by overly long exposure to the long overdue and still unresolved statutory registration of accommodation debate? I remain sceptical of getting this one over the line in England in what remains of this Parliamentary session but that’s another story.

I believe that there is understandable concern that the Bill and CMA’s aims may focus too sharply on consumer protection.  In the case of fake reviews focusing in on overselling or “bigging up” the offer via paid for or other forms of fake or falsely obtained reviews to the detriment of the consumer who is falsely sold a potentially inferior product than that they may otherwise have chosen.  Businesses, are equally and rightly concerned about fake negative review which by default are likely to sit only on third party sites, as businesses are unlikely to tolerate fake negatives about themselves on site they operate and can control.  Being wrongly deterred from purchasing a perfectly good product may be potentially regarded as less of a “consumer protection” issues?  Therefore, more work may be needed to adequately addressed the issue of malicious reviews within the final stages of the Bill and as subsequent CMA guidance is developed?  Regardless of the unjustifiable harm done to businesses, fake negatives can and do distort the market and falsely reducing or limiting informed consumer choice.

Again, as broadly expected following similar update announcements in November 2023, the news that DBT are to “outlaw dripped fees that are unavoidable” confirms that the measures aimed to tackle price drip feeding are going to be far more limited than perhaps first envisage a year plus ago and certainly they will not physically reduce the actual overall cost of some often big-value goods and service, as many consumers hoped for and (still?) erroneously assume.  In essence, the new regulation tackles things like compulsorily handling, booking, delivery or other fees or mandatory insurance on goods and service that are added to the original headline price toward or at the end of the purchase process and are thus “unavoidable” if the purchase is to be completed. In terms of domestic tourism this is likely to impact on current practices in areas like events, theatre, entertainment and public transport and some, mainly smaller (?), accommodation booking arrangements. 

My understanding, and I could well be wrong, is that common practices like promoting “ticket from £XYZ, handling/booking/delivery fee apply”, will no longer be permitted and thus the likes of say the Trainline will no longer be able to headline a ticket from X to Y at say £110.50 and then add a nominal £1.50 booking fee at checkout but will now have to offer the journey upfront at £112.  In many instances that may involve little more than a site redesign?  Most budget airlines, for example, have long since abandoned the practice of adding APD or booking fees as an afterthought to the booking process; it a design not a process issue, albeit for something like rail travel involving millions of potential price points, a complex one.  For other smaller businesses, in particular, it may, and I stress may have some impact on fragile business models, or involve relatively large corrective costs compared to the returns available at the individual business level. 

For the likes of the Trainline and many of the major third-party booking platforms this is something that they will just get on and do and, in due course, inform their business stakeholders and customers what the changes will be.  For individual destinations and businesses running their own digital booking arrangements, or working with others, to sell (digitally promote) goods and services such as event tickets, my considered advise would be that: unless you can make obvious potentially necessary changes now, with little or no effort or cost attached, then sit tight and await the CMA guidance which is at the very least 2 to 3 months away and which in any case cannot and will not come it effect overnight once published.  I would be surprised if the implementation, let alone enforcement date for small businesses would be this side of October 2024 and could well be much later, even into 2025, assuming the guidance does appear in late spring or into the early summer. 

When implemented and an enforcement date is announced I think it likely that CMA’s interests will be fixed initially on major national and international players and will only shift to the “Visit Some Where’s website or question the validity of the “reviews or the headline digital price for the “Some Where Inn” at some later date.  My understanding which again may be wrong, is that the CMA tend toward investigating complaints, having more than enough to do for now, without actively going looking for minor infringements themselves. Minor infringement or infringement of whatever size by minor players will get picked up but not on day one and probably not until the new system is embedded and well understood by both the industry the consumer.    I am not encouraging compliancy, just trying to be pragmatic, especially now as we rapidly approach the start of another critical main summer season.

What the Bill and guidance isn’t going to do is impact on avoidable consumer cost, most notable in the airline industry and things like choice of seating, priority boarding, additional baggage or other “upgrades.”  If it is possible to fly from X to Y clutching your worldly good in a handbag or carrier bag, having queued up at every stage, accepting whatever seat allocated, bring your own food and drink or whatever for £XYZ, then £XYZ remains the headline price that can be promoted and offered at the start of the digital transaction. 

If you then choose to add pre booked meals, priority check in, security lane or boarding, bring more than your keys and wallet; some baggage with you perhaps? then it remains permissible to add those, “avoidable” extras during the booking process and pay a higher final price at checkout than the headline price offered at the beginning of it. On the same basis a hotel or other accommodation provider should be able to offer a standard room at £XZ upfront but then gives the option to upgrade to a better standard of room or add genuinely optional services as the booking process progresses. The bar to offering additional services like a round of golf, transport to the local station or whatever for many smaller providers remains the Package Travel and Linked Arrangements Regulation 2018 not the DMCCB Again that’s yet another regulatory issue for domestic tourism, that has still to be addressed.

These largely reasonable concessions outlined above do tend by default to apply more to often bigger ticket item, outbound international travel, than they do to domestic tourism and domestic goods and tourism services.  On a brighter note, it does seem that DBT have accepted that a B&B (Bed and Breakfast) or similar establishment can offer bed only and thus sell an avoidable breakfast element as an addition. Again, I would advise colleagues and smaller individual business to await the development of the guidance over the coming months, if not the publication of the full guidance itself, before speculating or investing too much time and effort into preparing for expected restrictions or indeed for promised or hoped for concessions which may still be subject to a significant degree of interpretation and detailed definition.  Not unreasonably, most of the major individual trade association are already all over the individual and nuanced issues involved for their individual tourism sub sectors and they will continue to engage with DBT and CMA over the coming months, as I will for destinations and their constituent businesses, where and when the need arises. 

From a destination management prospective, beyond reassuring local businesses that there is no need for any immediate action for the coming main season and only limited prospect for anything major much beyond that, I would be doing a quick “back of a fag packet” assessment of ticketed events and activities that are run internally or facilitated for others through my digital channels.  I would be checking what if any consumer reviews facilities I might have or host for others on any internally run digital platform. In that way I would at least know if the Bill when it comes into force had any direct impact on anything I currently do.  I might also be checking with my website providers, ticketing agents and other digital platforms that offer online sales transactions for me, or through me for my partner businesses, what their take on implications of the DMCCB might be. If at this stage they don’t have one, then I might start to be concerned!  That said I would reiterate I don’t see any possibility of implementation and critically enforcement this side of the start of the main summer school holidays in mid to late July and very little chance of there being much if any this side of October and quite possibly much later.  Only when the guidance has been developed and possibly only when issued in the coming days, weeks or months ahead will we be absolute certain of the intended implementation and associated enforcement dates.  If and when I find out a date or get some further indication members will be the first to know.

If you have any concern, particularly from a destination perspective, or have had concerns raised to you from individual businesses that are not adequately addressed in my thumbnail sketch above then please let me know ASAP.  I can then raise these either with DBT, CMA directly or the appropriate partner, Trade Associations via our Tourism Alliance channels. Equally if you have any specific questions from businesses, I am happy to try to get tailored answers for you, for them, from the colleagues in the relevant trade bodies who are the subject experts on the various sub sectors from beer and pubs through accommodation in all its many and various glorious forms, to heritage railways and much else besides.

DBT press release is at: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-laws-set-to-ban-mandatory-hidden-fees-from-online-shopping-saving-money-for-consumers