taxes

Furnished Holiday Let and residential housing issues in popular destinations update

Posted on Updated on

Following the Budget Statement at the begin of the month, I gave a brief overview of the tourism related elements of the budget, including plans to abolish Furnished Holiday Let (FHL) rules.  In my comment on FHL I shared my concerns, especially around the impacts on established, larger letting business, an area that I am not that professionally familiar with and that I undertook to research in more detail and report back on. 

I also mentioned that there were two distinctly differing ends to the spectrum of popular opinion in play regarding FHL abolition, ranging from: “this is a disaster for accommodation provision and therefore destinations”, through to, “something needs to be done to combat the negative impacts of the relatively recent explosion in short-lets accommodation provision”.  I suggested the truth probably lies somewhere within the mid-ground but that by inclination and from a purely destination perspective, I would generally lean more towards supporting anything that might genuinely act to redress the residential housing crisis.

Having now looked at the Governments proposal and to be honest, educated myself on some of the finer detail of FHL provision, I find that I was entirely wrong to suggest that on balance there might be some significant social benefit rising from the Government’s plan, albeit at some economic cost.  The more I have looked at the issues involved the more I am convinced that the abolition of the FHL rules is entirely the wrong policy, addressing the wrong issue, in the wrong part of the short-let market. The update that follows hopefully explains and corrects my initial, unintended error, whilst giving a bit more background some possible food for thought for destination mangers and some sincere advice for owner operators caught up a nightmare of HM Treasury’s (HMT) making.

The detailed impacts on the estimated 127,000 registered FHL following the Chancellors budget announcement of the current tax concessions with effect April 2025 are still far from clear and will remain so until the draft regulation is published, “in due course”.  This surprise move, first aired as a possibility only days before the budget, has prompted justifiable concern among a number of trade and other bodies associated with this sector.  They are now raising their concerns about both the likely intended and unintended impacts on those individual owner/operators, on letting businesses that are registered with HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) as FHL (by no means all properties in the short-term letting market). They are also raising justifiable concerns about the future availability and over time the quality of holiday accommodation stock in popular tourist areas and destinations and the probable knock-on effect on the wider tourism industry and the visitor economy in some or all of these areas. 

To put it into context for the majority of those registered as FHLs with HMRC, many of which will have been in business for years and trading before the creation, let alone the explosion in Airbnb type operations, this change of tax treatment is akin to HMRC suddenly deciding to abolish the established tax benefits, private pension arrangements and saving plans of any other entire business sector or “trade”, leaving many business models and personal succession and retirement plans in tatters.  Moreover, HMRC, or more accurately the Chancellor has done so without consultation, at no real notice and with little or no hard evidence to justify, either the ends or the means used to achieve his stated aims.  The only thing it might stop is anyone thinking seriously in future about opening a new or taking on an existing letting business and running it as a professional full-time enterprise.  It will not necessarily deter second home buyers or single property part-time “hobbyists”.

The move was heralded as being necessary to close a “tax loophole”, when in fact the FHL regulation were and still are a legitimate tax scheme. A longstanding tax scheme at that, purposely designed by HMRC to meet the needs of a specific, specialised trade. Notable a trade that, since the scheme’s inception 20 plus years ago, HMRC have actively encouraged eligible businesses to us and engage with.  To describe it now as a “loophole” is frankly bordering on disingenuous. To imply by the use of that phrase that those using FHL status are somehow exploiting a weakness to obtain unfair advantage is itself grossly unfair to the vast majority of registered FHL owner operators.

The quoted figures for the Chancellor’s financial estimates of a tax benefits arising varies significantly. The original figure on budget day (?) of £600m over a 5-year period, starting with a £35m benefit in in 2024/25 rising to £140m in 2026/27 and £245m for 2028/29, would appear to be predicated on HM Treasury (HMT) assumptions of urgent sale of some properties this financial year, presumably to obtain the current capital gains tax (CGT) concessions that are still available until 2025, whilst possibly forgoing the tax concession on trading costs?  The future HMT gains then accelerate as a consequence of both the abolition of the annual trading cost allowances (on fixtures fitting etc.) and the loss of CGT and pension contribution concessions, with the estimated gain build progressively in future years, presumably mainly from increased CGT payments on the gifting or sale of properties and/or businesses.  Subsequently other, sometime significantly lower, tax take estimates have been quoted by HMRC and others.  Whether these are revisions on the original estimates or different estimates of different components of the total package is unclear. Regardless, they only serve to further confuse an already confusing plan that real purpose appears to be to extract significantly more tax from a relatively small professional trade grouping working within a much larger and more diverse short-term letting market. 

Without clarity on what the new regulation will be, it is hard to see how HMT themselves can accurately predict the likely response from the industry, let alone go on to predict the additional tax take arising from it.  Presumably they know what they are planning to do but just aren’t tell anyone the options or the final plan yet?  In the apparent absence of any truly credible financial evidence on FHL, PASC UK (Professional Association of Self Caterers) has commissioning a detailed assessment to support their own and others’ future lobbying efforts.  This information, when available, should prove invaluable. It is to be hoped HMT will readily accept the offer of this evidence and assistance from outside, independent experts.

In addition to the use of the term loophole, there have also been suggestion of abuse of the FHL rules (essentially the claiming of the allowances by those not operating as genuine FHLs). It is conceivable that those few who may have been knowingly abusing the letter of FHL rules or those who may perhaps have abused the spirt by say “trading” more as a tax efficient hobby than as a business venture, may have very little to lose and be inclined to bailout immediately? Bailing out, particular on a single property basis doesn’t necessarily mean selling up, it could just mean carrying on as before just under different less beneficial set of tax rules. However, it is far more complex and painful issue for the vast majority in the FHL scheme who are genuinely trading and, in particular, for those businesses trading at any scale.

Currently running a furnished holiday let business is recognised for tax purposes as a trade largely only by dint of the FHL rules.  If those rules are abolished, how then does this not insignificant body of traders, access the tax concessions available to other similar trades and professions (tools of the trade, vehicles, insurances, training etc.)?  As intermated above, whole lives, livelihoods and significant local businesses have been built, often over many years, around and predicated upon the continuance of longstanding FHL rules and, in particular, capital gains and pension contribution concessions.  The justification for removing these concessions now, seem at best flimsy.  To remove them in the manner and at the pace seemingly proposed seems more like an injustice; potentially yet another injustice of the type that recently the British public have started to becoming all too familiar with.

I am led to believe that abolition of FHL rules is not being addressed within the Finance Bill to be tabled on 16 April, as we might reasonably have expected.  Why that is and how and when the changes to FHL are to be dealt with (if at all?) remains a bit of a mystery. Has there been a change of heart or pause for more thought already?   Unless and until the draft regulation is issued (with or without prior or post consultation) business operators would I suggest be very unwise to make any firm decisions on their immediate or future plans, based purely on the Chancellor’s announcements and the flurry of business, trade and news media reporting. 

FHL regulations aren’t in themselves that complex, their complexity lies in their interrelationship with and direct impact on all the other tax affairs of the individuals involved. Most notably, for many of professional traders involved, the treatment for capital gains on their major assets and also their assets’ treatment for pension pot purposes. Once the new regulations are issued, there may of course be very limited time and, potentially, a more limited/overcrowded market (?) for knee jerk but legitimate responses, like the sale of some or all of a portfolio of FHL properties before the April 2025 deadline.  Feeling pressured to sell some or all parts of a business in haste, in order to try and achieve the quite reasonably, long expected financial return offered under the FHL rules is one thing, doing so in the next year only then to potentially find there been a change of direction and there was or is now no pressing need to have done would be quite another.

There are also multitude of “what ifs” and unknowns yet to be addressed.  For example: the treatment of properties never built or intended for alternative residential usage like holiday lodges and apartments but also including shepherd’s huts, treehouse and glamping which can and do all full under FHL rules.  Or the rights and wrongs of a blanket application to properties purposefully built or converted with restricted planning consent that precludes their use for residential purposes.  Or thorny issues, like the potential disincentive to invest in to maintaining the product quality, or the obvious, to us at least, problems of the style, nature, price level or location of many but not all holiday let properties. Factors that make many, properties, particularly within the longer and more established letting stock, largely or totally unsuitable to first time buyer or local working age, or family residential usage.

In the case of stock unsuitable for local residential usage, forcing them out of the FHL market would only serve to facilitate many of them becoming, oft vacant second homes or less well unregulated and often far less welcome Airbnb type operations. Certainly, the aim of removing FHL concessions should not be to try and force the closure of the, more often that not, fulltime, all year round, professional traders and do so in favour of a further glut of gifted amateurs, often unregulated and more likely to be part-time, seasonal provision. That isn’t progress it is the route to anarchy, particularly if domestic tourism wishes to be regarded as an industry and an industry that has accepted standards, cohesive organised approaches, that is well coordinated at every appropriate level and is capable of delivering consistently good products and services, everywhere.

An unintended shift in who owns and/or who operator or doesn’t operate short-term lets isn’t going to help to correct owner occupier or long-term rental housings supply issues.  It could, almost certainly would do far more harm to communities than good.  Especially in rural and/or urban honeypot location where the affordable residential housing, residential work force, resident community and residential public and private service balance is now already often badly out of kilter.  So out of kilter that, without effective intervention, there is a serious danger of it getting to the point at which a lack of authenticity, lack of staff and lack of product capacity combined starts to kills off completely the appeal and restricts or denigrate the communities, products and services that the visitors come to enjoy. Maintaining communities and a sustainable residential workforce is as much tourism and economic issue as it is a social on community concern.  It’s a common mistake, usual made outside the areas impacted, to view them as complete separate and often competing issues.  They are conjoined and balance is the key.

Meanwhile, following a forthright lobbying effort there is a possibility that the current Government might change or amend its approach before the General Election, or that a new or different Government may adopt a different economic strategy and/or seek to fill budgetary holes from other sources, allowing them to rescind the planned abolition of the FHL rules after the election and before the April 2025 implementation date, or possibly soon after.  While there can be absolutely no certainty unless and until such a change of direction happens, the genuine possibility of an about face, prompted by the unusual circumstances of economic conditions and of a looming General Election, can’t be ignored.  In my view it gives further reason to recommend that professional furnish holiday let owners and operator bide their time for as long as possible and think very carefully before making any irreversible decisions on how to react to this March Budget’s announcement.

The now defunct Officer for Tax Simplification (OTS) in its report and recommendations on FHL was unconvinced that tackling FHL alone would address the much wider problem of second homes and Airbnb type usage.  Nonetheless, as was their remit they made some recommendations around simplifying the existing scheme which is an outlier or special case for a relatively small number of businesses.  In trying to address FHL, they suggested a differentiation between small operators and larger letting businesses offering a two-tier approach with a “bright-line test” (a clear and objective rule that leave no doubt) to distinguishes between those who should and those who should not legitimately continue to benefit from a revised FHL regime, as opposed to abolition for all. 

Headline elements for the test suggested by their report were:

  • A minimum number of properties let
  • Letting on a short-let basis only
  • No personal use of the let
  • A level of personal time devoted to the property letting business and service provided.

The principle of bright-line test is now being suggested in some quarters as a potential alternative to abolition.  This seemingly plausible compromise solution has some significant problems associated with it, or more accurately critical faults with its predictable and therefore most likely implementation.   The OTS report gave a few ill-considered, almost “off the cuff”, suggestions around what the test might or might not include. In, particular, it suggested what the potential scale might be based broadly on a minimum of 5 letting properties, regardless of bed spaces, usage or turnover.  “Letting properties” or even “letting units” sounds plausible but in reality, it is a pretty meaningless measure of the true scale of a letting business, given all the other variables at play from bed spaces to quality and standard, through to occupancy level and length of letting season.   It is ironic that the key element of the suggest bright-line test for FHLs turns out to fail to meet the basis definition of a bright-line test I.E. an unambiguous, objective rule.  Before its abolition OTS itself was forced to agree with PASC UK that their report’s suggestions where seriously flawed and would not achieve their intent.  Sadly, it would appear that OTS by then had no time or the inclination to officially correct their unintended errors (?). 

There is now a major pitfall in broadly supporting the adoption of the OTS recommendations for a bright-line test.  In all likelihood, if persuaded, Government would default to the line of least resistance, adopting both the principle and the official but flawed, essentially, off the cuff “proposals” made in the OTS report in their entirety.  Unless the Government were willing and able to consider and then adopt a far more nuanced definition of scale, say involving properties, bed spaces, usage, occupancy season length and/or turnover, only a tiny percentage of the estimated 127,000 professional operators in the FHL scheme would pass the, back of a fag packet, suggested first bullet of test that OTS made.  Since OTS no longer exists, who now confirms to the satisfaction of HMT that their original suggestions were indeed flawed and who works up the suitably nuanced alternative within Government? Adopting a far more consider approach means resource, consultation and critically sufficient time to do the consideration; none of which are readily available, especially time to either an outgoing or potential new incoming Government both of which will almost certainly be seeking quick wins in the closing or open months (typically 100 days) of their administrations.  Support bright-line proposals as they stand is case of, be careful of what you wish for, or beware the laws of unintended consequence.

It is a judgement call but unless and until the this or any future Government have firmly rejected any call to rescind the ablution of FHL rules, I would urge colleagues to resist any obvious temptation to suggest the adoption of the bright-line test as a plausible alternative to the abolition or retention of existing FHL rules. Retention has to be the first and preferably only objective sought until it is achieved or is no longer a viable lobbying option. In addition, if and when bright=line tests are raised, as they are almost certainly bound to be over the coming weeks and months, please consider mentioning to anyone and everyone who will listen that while the principle outlined by the OTS may be sound, the off the cuff, untried and untested potential approaches “suggested” rather than officially “proposed” in the OTS report are seriously flawed.  So seriously flawed that if adopted without radical revision, they would do nearly as much harm, if not more, than that of the proposals for the total abolition of the FHL rules. PASC UK are without doubt the undisputed experts on all of these matters, should you need to seek further much more detailed information.

Personally, I find it disappointing that Government appears to have chosen to latch on to the abolition of the FHL rules and publicly promote their demise as the desired means of addressing residential housing issues found in many destinations. Particularly, when all the other evidence available suggests that the real driving force behind the move was an urgent requirement to generate a quick tax fix, to help balance financial forecasts and, thus, facilitate popularist tax give aways elsewhere in the system. 

It is all the more disappoint when you consider that all the other potentially effective measures in combination, like changes to use class orders for short-term lets within planning regulation and a registration scheme for short-term holiday lets, that have been in train and consulted upon to death over many years, have yet to be finally pronounced upon, let alone adopted (latest forecast for long awaited announcements on both is now by mid-July).  Other much needed changes like the outlawyering of no-fault evictions, that already been enacted are now not to be implemented until after major reforms to the Courts are completed, I.E. kicked down the road to well beyond the next election and, thus, potentially far enough away to ignore for now and far enough for it to potentially become someone else’s problem not mine. The Chancellor’s proclaimed desire to satisfy the urgent need to address the residential housing crisis via the abolition of FHL rules aired in the Budget Statement now seem to me to ring a little hollow, especially given the rest of Government’s complete lack of urgency on the matter elsewhere.

That said, bring in legislation or changing regulation in haste like the proposal to abolish FHL tax rules, generally results in poor legislation or ineffective regulation and is therefore almost always ill-advised, poor practice. Bring in legislation or regulation in haste and doing so, apparently for reasons other than those you are claiming, is something far in a way worse than just poor practice. Whether the FHL decision is actually just a smoke and mirrors based tax grab, or to what degree the main purpose of changes has been misrepresented for PR/political reasons, or indeed how that misrepresentation, if true, could or should be viewed, I will leave to others to judge.

I hope that the current Government can now find both the humility to admit the proposals to abolish FHL rules might be ill-conceived and to find the financial headroom elsewhere in the budget to allow them to rescind the proposals at the earliest opportunity.  Preferably well before too many good and much needed professional traders are spooked into rashly abandoning FHL provision in the coming 12 months.  The Government are certainly coming under considerable pressure to do so. Failing that it is to be hoped that an incoming new Government, of whatever colour, will have both the sense and financial manoeuvrability available to them to abandon the FHL changes. Given that by that stage it could well be someone ese’s bad idea, there is then no political capital to be lost from it and potentially much to be gained.  

This and any other future Government also undoubtedly needs to get to grips with both the provision of more residential housing and sensible controls and balances between short-term holiday and long-term residential letting, especially but not exclusively in popular domestic holiday destination. The means have or are seemingly about to been agreed, it just needs a Government, any Government, willing to implement them, regardless of the flak they will attract from among others, second and holiday home owners.  Abolishing FHL rules, either in isolation or as part of that wider package of measure, is the wrong tool, hitting the wrong segment of the short-term holiday let market, in the wrong way.  If pursued as currently proposed, it will do far more harm to the visitor economy and, thus, to local communities, than it will do good to those communities via any forlorn hope of it releasing a wave of affordable properties back into the local residential rental or owner occupier housing markets. 

The Budget 2024 beyond the headlines.

Posted on Updated on

I paused for 48 hours to digest what the headline of spring budget says and then to consider what the key measures might actually mean for tourism. The two are clearly linked but not necessarily always the same.

1. The main headline measure effecting tourism and indeed everything else, the 2% cut on both employed and self-employed National Insurance (NI) payments must be welcomed.  Coming into effect from 6 April it, together with the 2% gifted in the Autumn Statement that started to be reflected in January’s wage packets, will now leave the average worker on a £36k salary £900 better off by the end of 2024/25 tax year, or an additional £75 a month, of hopefully, disposable income.  The headline as much as the reality may help boost consumer confidence. The confidence to dispose of income on “non-essential activities” like trips to the pub, meals or of days out, short breaks away or holidays can be as, if not more, important to discretionary spending, than the reality of having the spare cash to do it.

That said in a market place, as diverse as that of domestic tourism and across all parts of the ubiquitous visitor economy the “average worker” isn’t everyone’s average customer.  The range of individual incomes and circumstances involved across the UK’s working and retired (not subjected to NI) population are so diverse that it is difficult to be overly optimistic about the prospects for universally positive impacts from this measure and, especially, for marked improvement on 2023 performance, in time to impact on the fast approach 2024 shoulder and looming main summer seasons.  No real change there then.

Although, any financial improvement is welcome, for many it will merely ease the increasing general local and national tax burden, cost of living, energy and interest rate pressures and not necessarily significantly boost the all-important discretionary, disposable income.  For those with disposable income to spend on tourism and within the visitor economy more generally and there are of course still many of them, the elephant in the room remains the propensity and proportion to direct much of that spending overseas, as opposed to the clear alternative of retaining more of it at home within the UK.  Domestic outbound tourism has recovered quicker and further than the rest of domestic tourism and depending on who you believe, is set to continue to do so in 2024 and beyond.

It is an elephant that, at least in the offices and corridors of Westminster Government, still seems to be studiously ignored.  Albeit in their defence ignored possible because it is just too big, too thick skinned and potential too powerful to be safely and easily addressed? If you are unwilling or can’t reasonably be expected to address the elephant directly, that shouldn’t preclude you from indirectly addressing the obvious, to us at least, domestic and domestic outbound imbalances through more targeted fiscal and policy support for domestic tourism’s development and promotion. Yet such support remains stubbornly viewed by Treasury and, thus by successive Governments, as an internal, general (white goods to days out) UK economic displacement activity and therefore seldom if ever worthy of serious industry specific intervention. We can but try to change ingrained attitudes especially during a potentially forthcoming period of fresh faces and differing priorities.

2. On the business front an increase of £5k from £85k to £90k on VAT registration threshold and from £83k to £88k for voluntary deregistration, both effective from 1 April will be helpful for those businesses operating at or near the VAT or no VAT margins.   Although welcome, changes to VAT thresholds and the desire or need to remain as close below, as is safely possible, usually to enjoy a sales price benefit, at the loss of an input cost advantage, is often a more complex juggling act than it is popularly assumed.

For many of those deliberately operating at the margins or now unintentionally approaching them, largely due to recent unavoidable inflationary pressures, it won’t necessarily allow them to undertake £5k worth of additional sales as some suggest but rather it may allow them to remain trading at the same level for a while longer and do so below the VAT threshold, despite the ever-increased cost of everything they buy and sell.  Obviously, there will be many exceptions to that general rule.  Some (who currently knows how many?) will be encouraged or enabled to undertake c £5k more additional sales without the added cost and administrative burden of charging and accounting for VAT.  Meanwhile, I suspect the vast majority of businesses both very small and all of the bigger businesses operating well below or above the threshold will be totally unmoved by it.  Some of those paying VAT will of course continue to resent the 20% price advantage offered to their sometime only marginally smaller competitors.  You can’t please everybody.

3. Furnished Holiday Let (FHL), tax concessions that have been in place in some form since the 1980’s, abolished in 2009 and reinstated in 2011 are now to be removed again with effect from April 2025.   The rules essential allow mortgage interest costs, capital investment and/or any losses made on an individual FHL property in the UK or abroad to be offset against tax and give far more generous capital gains tax benefits on the property’s sale or those transferred by gifting. There are clear but not necessarily easily enforced rules about what constitutes an FHL and when. The Government main stated reason for acting is apparently to close a tax loophole that has by accident or intent encouraged a significant shift, particularly in many popular tourist destinations from long term residential to short term holiday letting, with all the now increasingly familiar attendant social, economic, employment and staffing issues that this can exacerbate. (my interpretation and not necessarily Governments).  

The details of the new rules are yet to be issued (and consulted upon?).  So, it is not yet absolutely clear, for example whether the capital gains benefits will tail off or simply cease (probably the latter) or whether there will be any clawback of any previous benefit (unlikely).  There are two distinct ends to the tourism spectrum regarding this measure. The, “this could significantly reduce the supply of holiday accommodation to the detriment of the destinations involved and to UK tourism as a whole”. And at the other end of the scale the, “this has sadly come a bit too late but it might overtime redress the chronic shortage of affordable (?) long term rented accommodation needed in tourism hotspots, indeed in most destination of any significance, in order to sustain the living, breathing, working communities that people on the whole actually seek to visit in the first place”.  I tend to lean more towards the latter.

The true position probably lies somewhere in between the two and I feel should include somewhere within the midground the justifiable concern from some quarters about tax incentivised distortion of the established serviced and non-serviced accommodation sector and its market.   While there may be a flurry of attempted property sales before the April 2025, I can’t really see any of the potential positives or negatives developing too quickly, or coming to a head much before the mid to end of the next Parliament.  Nor do I see any of the main party contenders for the next Westminster Government reversing the proposal before it is implemented next April or anytime soon thereafter, despite any of the inevitable lobbying there is now likely to be for this.

I am currently unconvinced about the impact on individual single property owners.  It is truly unfortunate that the benefits that they enjoyed are being removed but will it really be enough to force the sale and abandonment of their property, or enough on its own to force their conversion to the now equally attractive or is it equally less attractive long term let market? I do have much greater concerns for “proper businesses” based on larger holdings of furnished holiday lets.  The cumulative removal of the tax concession across a wider portfolio of properties could easily destabilise even the most established of business models.  I am currently seeking more informed opinion on this.   

On balance I think the true impact of the measure will be to remove the ongoing financial incentive to buy up owner occupier and long term lets in holiday areas with the express dual intent of turning them in to a potential lucrative furnished holiday letting and as tax efficient capital investment.  I would question whether in honey pot locations at least, that the horse hasn’t already long since bolted, with much of what can be bought up for FHL purposes already having been bought? Regardless, the Government are doing precisely what they say they intend to do which is to remove a tax incentivised distortion in the housing market, a distortion that happens to impact directly on tourism and indirectly on many tourism destinations. 

Certainly, in terms of destination management, some if not many may say it was a great pity they didn’t act much sooner when the issues were first identified and before much of the damage was already done. Conversely, there are still some popular tourism areas, some coastal towns in particular, where the purchase specifically of some rundown poor-quality accommodation and its redevelopment into quality FHL would remain beneficial.  FHL rules may have helped on occasion with the process of “gentrification” with some seaside resorts but there are probably far better and more effective ways of doing it.  Removing the distortion in the housing market is an important first step, more difficult and frequently overlooked are the subsequent steps needed to manage both the intended and unintended consequence that then arise.

If the Government are serious about correcting a distorted housing market, then they also need to implement the long promised, now agreed but as yet unimplemented abolition of no-fault evictions.  It is not a budget related matter but it would be remise not to remind members that it is a combination of the FHL rules that incentives purchase of owner or rented property and of parallel no fault eviction rules that then allow the eviction of perfectly good local tenants, that has done so much of the damage to local communities in a relatively short period of time and not just one or other in isolation.

4. Other measures include: a one-off 7 to 11% higher increase to take account of elevated rates of inflation applied to APD on long-haul business and first-class travel from April 2025.  Economy flights APD will rise at forecasted RPI with domestic and international short-haul frozen.  The freeze on alcohol duty is extended for a further 6 months until February 2025.  Instead of increasing by RPI fuel duty has been frozen yet again while the 5p tax cut a litre introduced in 2022 remains in place for a further year.  Any further increase in both fuel or alcohol duty would have had a demonstrable impact on domestic tourism and the wider visitor economy.

5. Not in the budget but as requested by the Chancellor in the Office of Budget Responsibilities (OBR) pre budget economic and fiscal outlook is the OBR’s reassessment of the rational for VAT free shopping, or VAT Res as it called in Treasury terms. Not the easiest or most encouraging of reads the report does upgrade the forecasted benefit of reinstating the VAT refund scheme on luxury good bought by overseas visitors to the UK by including some of the indirect and other associated spending that would arise from each visit but concludes by saying:  

“Conclusion On review, our 2020 methodology still appears reasonable, and our costing to have been a central estimate (although one surrounded by considerable uncertainty). We have updated it to account for the impacts of visitors’ spending on non-VAT RES spending, but continue to believe that this measure is unlikely to affect significantly the productive capacity of the economy”.

“We have focused on VAT RES rather than airside shopping because of its greater fiscal costs. Based on our own assessment and from responses received from external stakeholders the behavioural uncertainties around VAT RES are more significant for our forecast than those surrounding airside shopping. But both measures operate via similar channels, and so our main analytical conclusions are also likely to also be relevant for airside shopping”.

I doubt that the reintroduction was ever on the cards for this budget and that the Chancellor was merely bowing to extreme pressure to review the evidence for such a move.  Given the comments and content in the OBR’s review I doubt that there is much likelihood of the measure being reintroduced in an Autumn Statement, assuming there is one from this Government before a General Election. Given that the OBR report isn’t offering enthusiastic support for the economic benefits of VAT Res I also doubt the measure is going to be high on the agenda for the first post-election budget of the new party of Government, whoever that might be. That does not mean that some or all sectors of the “tourism industry” shouldn’t continue to lobby for such a change. 

Personally, and I stress personally, at this point because I have yet to properly sound out colleagues, I think from a domestic industry perspective at least we would be better off continue to focus all our efforts on the long sought after and briefly granted during the covid pandemic, reduction in VAT on all tourism services.  The benefits of a general VAT reduction would fall to all businesses and all locations and not simply to those in a particular market, often in specific locations. Views please.

You can access the full OBR pre budget document and the section on VAT Res (at para 342 page 71 through to page 76) at:

6. And finally, if you got this far on matter of budget and budgeting can I raise the issue with you of annual subscriptions? Some members pay British Destinations subscription in the first quarter of the year, other at the beginning of or during the new financial year.  I am happy to assist members by taking payment for 2024/25 before 31 March, should that help you.  Please contact me ASAP if you wish to consider paying now.  Otherwise, I will contact individual members organisation and their main representatives re subscriptions post 1 April.