Month: January 2024

Digital Markets, Competition and Consumer Bill (UK wide), Price Drip Feeding and Fake Reviews in Tourism.

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You may have seen a flurry of recent media report concerning the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumer Bill (DMCCB) first introduced last April and making way through Parliamentary with the target date for UK wide introduction (but not necessarily immediate enforcement) later in 2024. This follows a Department for Business & Trade (DBT) press release update issued on 24 January, the key comments of which is that the Department “will officially add fake reviews to a list of banned business practices, outlaw dripped fees that are unavoidable for consumers and ensure that businesses provide clearer labelling for prices on supermarket shelves.” (my added emphasise not DBT’s).   The Bill covers all industry sectors, but it does have particular resonance to travel, tourism, leisure, culture arts, theatre, live performances, events and retail and therefore, to much of the wider visitor economy.

None of the announcement is absolutely new but it serves to confirm, following consultation and some amendments to the Bill in its passage through the two House of Parliament (Lord yet to complete and Commons, final consideration to follow that) what DBT now intend to include, or not, in the final Bill.  A Bill that will dictate what is included in the guidance to all industries that the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), a non-ministerial government department, must then in due course apply.  The Bill is probably now sufficiently well developed to be swept up in the dissolution of Parliament process, should an earlier general election be called, before the currently anticipated “second half of 2024” date indicated by the PM.

The Bill itself aimed to: introduces a new digital marketing regime, strengthens consumer protections and improve CMA’s investigation and enforcement powers.  Powers that will including the ability to impose penalties directly without, long, slow recourse to the Courts and significantly increased upper limits for penalties for larger players in the digit market place.  What then, if anything, does the latest press release actually tell us or confirm?

Fake review, as expected, are to be “added to the list of banned practice” and critically “with webhosts held accountable for reviews on their pages”.  I doubt colleagues in destination management or in tourism businesses more generally would oppose either of these proposed actions.  However, like me, many would recognise that accountability, is not yet an as well-established general principle for all platforms for all product sold or promoted within digital market place, as it perhaps should be? Many well-known online accommodation platforms having no legal and arguably take little moral responsibility for the accuracy or indeed basic safety of the product they list.  If they can legally list properties without ensuring that they have basic permissions and safety checks in place, then I am not entirely sure what “being held accountable for reviews” might actually means or achieve in practice. My view may be jaundiced by overly long exposure to the long overdue and still unresolved statutory registration of accommodation debate? I remain sceptical of getting this one over the line in England in what remains of this Parliamentary session but that’s another story.

I believe that there is understandable concern that the Bill and CMA’s aims may focus too sharply on consumer protection.  In the case of fake reviews focusing in on overselling or “bigging up” the offer via paid for or other forms of fake or falsely obtained reviews to the detriment of the consumer who is falsely sold a potentially inferior product than that they may otherwise have chosen.  Businesses, are equally and rightly concerned about fake negative review which by default are likely to sit only on third party sites, as businesses are unlikely to tolerate fake negatives about themselves on site they operate and can control.  Being wrongly deterred from purchasing a perfectly good product may be potentially regarded as less of a “consumer protection” issues?  Therefore, more work may be needed to adequately addressed the issue of malicious reviews within the final stages of the Bill and as subsequent CMA guidance is developed?  Regardless of the unjustifiable harm done to businesses, fake negatives can and do distort the market and falsely reducing or limiting informed consumer choice.

Again, as broadly expected following similar update announcements in November 2023, the news that DBT are to “outlaw dripped fees that are unavoidable” confirms that the measures aimed to tackle price drip feeding are going to be far more limited than perhaps first envisage a year plus ago and certainly they will not physically reduce the actual overall cost of some often big-value goods and service, as many consumers hoped for and (still?) erroneously assume.  In essence, the new regulation tackles things like compulsorily handling, booking, delivery or other fees or mandatory insurance on goods and service that are added to the original headline price toward or at the end of the purchase process and are thus “unavoidable” if the purchase is to be completed. In terms of domestic tourism this is likely to impact on current practices in areas like events, theatre, entertainment and public transport and some, mainly smaller (?), accommodation booking arrangements. 

My understanding, and I could well be wrong, is that common practices like promoting “ticket from £XYZ, handling/booking/delivery fee apply”, will no longer be permitted and thus the likes of say the Trainline will no longer be able to headline a ticket from X to Y at say £110.50 and then add a nominal £1.50 booking fee at checkout but will now have to offer the journey upfront at £112.  In many instances that may involve little more than a site redesign?  Most budget airlines, for example, have long since abandoned the practice of adding APD or booking fees as an afterthought to the booking process; it a design not a process issue, albeit for something like rail travel involving millions of potential price points, a complex one.  For other smaller businesses, in particular, it may, and I stress may have some impact on fragile business models, or involve relatively large corrective costs compared to the returns available at the individual business level. 

For the likes of the Trainline and many of the major third-party booking platforms this is something that they will just get on and do and, in due course, inform their business stakeholders and customers what the changes will be.  For individual destinations and businesses running their own digital booking arrangements, or working with others, to sell (digitally promote) goods and services such as event tickets, my considered advise would be that: unless you can make obvious potentially necessary changes now, with little or no effort or cost attached, then sit tight and await the CMA guidance which is at the very least 2 to 3 months away and which in any case cannot and will not come it effect overnight once published.  I would be surprised if the implementation, let alone enforcement date for small businesses would be this side of October 2024 and could well be much later, even into 2025, assuming the guidance does appear in late spring or into the early summer. 

When implemented and an enforcement date is announced I think it likely that CMA’s interests will be fixed initially on major national and international players and will only shift to the “Visit Some Where’s website or question the validity of the “reviews or the headline digital price for the “Some Where Inn” at some later date.  My understanding which again may be wrong, is that the CMA tend toward investigating complaints, having more than enough to do for now, without actively going looking for minor infringements themselves. Minor infringement or infringement of whatever size by minor players will get picked up but not on day one and probably not until the new system is embedded and well understood by both the industry the consumer.    I am not encouraging compliancy, just trying to be pragmatic, especially now as we rapidly approach the start of another critical main summer season.

What the Bill and guidance isn’t going to do is impact on avoidable consumer cost, most notable in the airline industry and things like choice of seating, priority boarding, additional baggage or other “upgrades.”  If it is possible to fly from X to Y clutching your worldly good in a handbag or carrier bag, having queued up at every stage, accepting whatever seat allocated, bring your own food and drink or whatever for £XYZ, then £XYZ remains the headline price that can be promoted and offered at the start of the digital transaction. 

If you then choose to add pre booked meals, priority check in, security lane or boarding, bring more than your keys and wallet; some baggage with you perhaps? then it remains permissible to add those, “avoidable” extras during the booking process and pay a higher final price at checkout than the headline price offered at the beginning of it. On the same basis a hotel or other accommodation provider should be able to offer a standard room at £XZ upfront but then gives the option to upgrade to a better standard of room or add genuinely optional services as the booking process progresses. The bar to offering additional services like a round of golf, transport to the local station or whatever for many smaller providers remains the Package Travel and Linked Arrangements Regulation 2018 not the DMCCB Again that’s yet another regulatory issue for domestic tourism, that has still to be addressed.

These largely reasonable concessions outlined above do tend by default to apply more to often bigger ticket item, outbound international travel, than they do to domestic tourism and domestic goods and tourism services.  On a brighter note, it does seem that DBT have accepted that a B&B (Bed and Breakfast) or similar establishment can offer bed only and thus sell an avoidable breakfast element as an addition. Again, I would advise colleagues and smaller individual business to await the development of the guidance over the coming months, if not the publication of the full guidance itself, before speculating or investing too much time and effort into preparing for expected restrictions or indeed for promised or hoped for concessions which may still be subject to a significant degree of interpretation and detailed definition.  Not unreasonably, most of the major individual trade association are already all over the individual and nuanced issues involved for their individual tourism sub sectors and they will continue to engage with DBT and CMA over the coming months, as I will for destinations and their constituent businesses, where and when the need arises. 

From a destination management prospective, beyond reassuring local businesses that there is no need for any immediate action for the coming main season and only limited prospect for anything major much beyond that, I would be doing a quick “back of a fag packet” assessment of ticketed events and activities that are run internally or facilitated for others through my digital channels.  I would be checking what if any consumer reviews facilities I might have or host for others on any internally run digital platform. In that way I would at least know if the Bill when it comes into force had any direct impact on anything I currently do.  I might also be checking with my website providers, ticketing agents and other digital platforms that offer online sales transactions for me, or through me for my partner businesses, what their take on implications of the DMCCB might be. If at this stage they don’t have one, then I might start to be concerned!  That said I would reiterate I don’t see any possibility of implementation and critically enforcement this side of the start of the main summer school holidays in mid to late July and very little chance of there being much if any this side of October and quite possibly much later.  Only when the guidance has been developed and possibly only when issued in the coming days, weeks or months ahead will we be absolute certain of the intended implementation and associated enforcement dates.  If and when I find out a date or get some further indication members will be the first to know.

If you have any concern, particularly from a destination perspective, or have had concerns raised to you from individual businesses that are not adequately addressed in my thumbnail sketch above then please let me know ASAP.  I can then raise these either with DBT, CMA directly or the appropriate partner, Trade Associations via our Tourism Alliance channels. Equally if you have any specific questions from businesses, I am happy to try to get tailored answers for you, for them, from the colleagues in the relevant trade bodies who are the subject experts on the various sub sectors from beer and pubs through accommodation in all its many and various glorious forms, to heritage railways and much else besides.

DBT press release is at: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-laws-set-to-ban-mandatory-hidden-fees-from-online-shopping-saving-money-for-consumers

IPS 2023 3rd quarter results and UK January 2024 domestic sentiment tracker reports now published. Plus some thought prompted by news of the Welsh domestic market spring campaign.

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1. VisitBritain have issued the provisional, 3rd quarter (July to September) results for Office for National Statistics (ONS) International Passenger Survey (IPS). The report shows a continued improvement in volume and a nominal improvement in value but a modest decline in real terms on the same quarter of 2022. On most measures, the 3rd quarter and/or year to date figures are approaching 2019 levels, while average length of stay was slightly up on 2019 at 8.7 nights.  London is still attracting 50% of volume and 47% of all international inbound value.  Scotland has shown by some margin the greatest improvement, surpassing both the 2019 quarter and year to date results in volume and by nominal and real value.

Both the full report and the Nations and English regions summary (listed below it) contain useful insights for all UK destinations. The other individual National Boards will doubtless issue their own specific summaries.  Both the VB, VB/VE reports can be accessed from the list of latest VB research and insight releases at: https://www.visitbritain.org/research-insights .

2. The list of releases also currently contains the December Domestic Sentiment Tracker report, produced by Bva Bdrc on behalf of all the Home Nation Boards.  The December report is undoubtedly of interest, however, the latest January edition, published on 23rd January but not yet listed (this may be rectified by the time you look) will be of equal if not more interest to all destination managers.  The January editions can be found separately at: https://www.visitbritain.org/research-insights/domestic-sentiment-tracker.

The report, rather than the accompanying data tables, offered below it, contain sufficient detail for most users.  There are so many snippets of general and specific relevance regarding both domestic and domestic outbound travel intentions and sentiment in the main report, that I have refrained from attempt summarise any of it myself, or even to try to direct you to what may be the key passages. 

At no more than 30 substantive pages/slides the report is worth reading in full and then drawing any conclusions relevant to your own destination’s particular circumstances.  As a taster the headlines taken from the report’s introduction are:

  • 79% of those surveyed in January 2024 intend to take an overnight domestic trip over the next 12 months (compared with 70% in January 2023).
  • The top barrier to taking an overnight domestic trip is ‘the rising cost of living’ (32%).
  • 21% took an overnight UK short break or holiday between October-December 2023, +1% on the same period in 2022.

3. Colleagues  in England and to a lesser extent Wales may be interested in seeing, or being reminded of some of the detail of the Visit Wales current Spring domestic and international promotional campaigns: https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/UKWALES/bulletins/3851023 .  Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland (via joint campaigns with Southern Ireland) continue to proactively promote their domestic offer, to a wider domestic UK/GB market place. Understanding how and what is being promoted where by others, including Visit Wales, may be of some limited use in developing your own destination-based campaigns? 

Gaining adequate resources and the political authority for VE to re-enter the marketing of domestic product to a wider domestic audience remains a long-term aspiration for British Destinations.  The financial, Government policy and political doctrinal obstacles to achieving this aim should not be underestimated.  Even if there were to be a major change in political direction and fresh thinking around domestic marketing following the now looming General Election, lobbying for and achieving a worthwhile change in domestic marketing policy for England, could still take the best part of one, if not into a second, full 5-year terms in office. Just because it isn’t likely to be easily or quickly achieved, if at all, doesn’t mean it isn’t still worth pursuing as one of a number of more strategic objectives. 

As ever any further thoughts on how best to present the case for publicly funded or enabled domestic marketing for England would be welcomed.

Green shoots of recovery or early growth still in need of nurturing?

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Yesterdays ONS published figures for Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) for December.   The headline figure has gone up marginally to 4%, from 3.9% in November, the first rise since its steady monthly fall from a peak at just over a 11% in October 2022. The figure of 3.9% for the year to November when issued in mid-December last year was better than expected and along with falling fixed rate mortgage deals can and probably should still be viewed as confirmation of signs of green shoots of recovery in the economy. Indeed, in mid-December I was about to pen a cheery piece on that very subject, until ONS or someone else close to them, let it be known well before the month’s ends that December’s figure would be showing an unwelcome increase.  I have been sitting waiting for those December figures until now before commenting further.

Despite the minor increase, all being well, the target of a return to a c 2% inflation rate could still be achieved by early to mid-summer.  At that point the Bank of England (BoE) could or should then be sufficiently optimistic to reduce interest again, easing pressure, in the longer-term, on both commercial and domestic borrowing. I say in the longer-term because the pause between cause and effect in the loans market for example, domestic mortgages, can and usually is drawn-out. There may be lower rate deal available but it doesn’t mean the average home owner can automatically accesses them, as soon as they come on to the market. Typically, in the case of mortgages it could be several years before an existing deal ends and a new deal become a viable option or an unwelcome necessity.

The increase in December’s CPI is hopefully a glitch, certainly many financial commentators think that it is.  Using the measure for core CPI that strips out cost increases in energy, alcohol and tobacco the inflation rate for November and December remains at 5.1%. The rest of the “shopping basket” that generates general CPI, remained the same.  Without being too flippant about it much of the December increases in the basket costs are logically down to “fags and booze” with the currently regulated energy cost element actually genuinely falling.  Some reports today have specifically identified tobacco and airfare as the key drivers of the increase. The latter is obviously of more specific tourism industry interest.  How might the inflationary cost increases on flights sold to UK residents impact, if at all, on the propensity for and popularity of UK domestic outbound international travel? Even without full understanding of the levels of inflationary costs involved, I would suspect that the deterrent effect on those determined to holiday abroad would be marginal?  For those who might be deterred by other influences, more on that later, it may be a welcomed additional contributing factor?

Useful to remember that even when the headline inflation rates are falling, it seldom necessarily means that the actual price of any item is also falling. In many cases a fall in the CPI just means the rate of annual increase is slowing.  At 4% or 5% the average item costing £1, would have cost c £0. 96 a year ago and if the rate remains unchanged, they should cost £1.04 or £1.05 next December.  Obviously, the realities and the dynamics of inflation across the entire economy are far more nuanced.  “CPI” on which so much hangs, is just an average figure and only one of many measures of inflation within the CPI family. ONS’s CPI for food and non-acholic beverage and for restaurant and café inflation (price to the consumer) also released yesterday, have for example “eased” to 8% and 7.7% respectively.  Both are still markedly higher than general CPI. For consumers and many tourism businesses the food and non-alcoholic beverage rate of CPI is probably of far greater real interest and day to day importance than the headline general CPI figure.   Equally energy and fuel CPI has fallen significantly with the actual prices paid for example for petrol has genuinely falling back below what they were a year ago.  Albeit “what they were” was an eyewatering high and what they are now, still remain painful for the average consumer. In essence the while the figures indicates the direction of travel, they don’t necessarily adequately describe the trials and tribulations of the journey taken.

What does this all mean if anything for tourism and domestic tourism, especially for the coming shoulder and main summer season? As discussed in previous updates, it probably still means that pressure on discretionary disposable income could and, subject to there being no further major external shocks, should continue to improve over the course of 2024. Whether those improvements, alongside small but welcome National Insurance reductions, combined are large enough and physically materialise as genuinely disposable pounds in the average consumers pocket and do so soon enough to influence the main summer school holiday period is still questionable.

Certainly, following yesterday’s announcement all bets in the financial markets on the BoE cutting base lending rates in May, as had been widely predicted, are now off.  July now seems more likely but who really knows yet for certain?  Interest rates remain a key factor for many businesses and consumers.  Critically there is always going to be a significant lag between BoE action on rates and lower rates being both available and having a genuine positive impact on retail and commercial loans.  Any early summer rate reduction will in effect miss the boat for the main summer season and possible much else during the remaining months of 2024.

Whether, the prospect or promise of improvements alone during 2024 is sufficient in itself to lift the nations mood and improve consumer confidence, a key parallel driver in lifting discretionary spend, is difficult to predict, even in the best of times.  Unfortunately for mainly geopolitical reasons this is far from the best of times.  We have three, potentially four, major conflicts on the go: Ukraine, Gaza, Yemen/Red Sea and as of a few days ago for reasons that are far from clear yet, Iran lobbing missiles at its neighbours to the West (Iran and Syria) and, as of yesterday, at Pakistan which have today replied in kind.  Individually and combined these conflicts are, or could yet put further pressure on world trade and economics and therefore on the UK economy.  

Ongoing sabre rattling between China and Taiwan and North and South Korea have been elevated to new levels in recent days and weeks while there are a handful of states, two in South America in particular, who just might take the opportunity to do something dramatic, while the world’s focus is elsewhere. Things that UK would be impacted by and would be hard pressed to simply ignore.  Of all of the above the negative effects on world trade, the Yemeni, Red Sea threat is by far the most immediate and almost certainly already the major external shock that could, I’d argue probably already is, about to throw off or delay the UK’s economic recovery somewhat and thus directly or indirectly impact on the prospects and fortunes of domestic tourism this summer season. 

In simple terms, the threat to shipping in the Red Sea means cargos, including gas and oil, either have to spend much longer travelling much further to avoid the Red Sea or take the risk of using it and carry the burden of massively increased insurance cost. One shipping agent recently quoted an example of the normal £30k premium rising to £600k for the Red Sea passage alone.   Either option means that the cost of transporting any and everything from trinkets to liquified gas to and from the Middle and the Far East to Europe and the Eastern US seaboard have already gone up significantly and will remain up until such times and the attacks and threat of attack cease. The well-equipped, Iranian backed Houthis have been attacking shipping in the Red Sea in support of the Hamas in the ongoing Hamas, Israeli Gaza conflict.  They claim to be targeting Israeli owned shipping or international shipping that they determine is on route to or from Israel.  Western authorities dispute this claim and, in any case, are determined to defend the right of free movement of all shipping.

In response to a piracy, drone and missile attacks on international shipping in international waters that started in early November, the US and UK launched targeted aircraft and missile attacks on Houthi military infrastructure, in Northern Yemen on 11 January.  This has reduced the Houthi capability somewhat but has so far failed to deter further attacks on commercial and naval shipping.  US and UK action under a broader UN mandate seems likely to continue until either: diplomatic, military action or a combination of both prevail.

Houthi rebels have been fighting the equally well-equipped, Saudi backed and internationally recognised Yemeni Government since 2014.  Neither their rebellion or the Houthi can be written off as third world force or a third world problem.   Unless the Gaza conflict is resolved quickly and the Houthi voluntarily refrain, military strikes against them either deter or render them unable to continue, or Iran, their military and their political sponsors, call them off, this crisis for international transport and trade will continue.  None of these “fixes” seem likely in the immediate or even short-term.  Meanwhile, the other ongoing conflicts and potential new flashpoints could pose a further immediate risk to UK economic recovery.  Hopefully, in the worst-case they represent no more than potential longer-term concerns and, better still, concerns that never come to fruition.

In the circumstance I hesitate to even mention it. However, past experience and recently attitudinal surveys indicate that the more that the world become a more uncertain place, the more a not insignificant proportion of the UK population will hunker down, play it safe, stay closer to home and avoid unnecessary risk including international travel, however remote some of the perceived risks really are.  Ongoing conflicts and uncertainties about other potential threats throughout 2024 are going to encourage some UK residents to think more seriously about holidaying at home.  How many and for how long is anyone’s guess, at least until after the event.  These additional visitors may of course still not have the disposable income they might once have had.  Nonetheless, at least more of what they have the discretion to spend on leisure, may well be spent on treats, events, days out, short and longer holidays in the UK this summer? A hard market to identify and an even harder sales pitch to make to encourage them (worried about war? why not come to…..) but I am sure it is a market or markets that could either be more subtly and deliberately targeted. Alternatively, it may be one that may simply pitch up unexpectedly all on its own and without any further encouragement?

February half-term and/or this years early Easter dates will be the first opportunity to judge how the market may or may not be responding.  I mention it now so colleagues can at least think about how they may try to evidence whether this predicted trend is materialising before it either does or does not in less than a months’ time and again five to six weeks later. If there is indeed an identifiable trend or an improvement in mid-February or in late March/early April there is still time to look to exploit the marketing opportunity this may present for the critical main summer school holiday period and beyond.