GBTS Q4 and provisional 2023 domestic overnight stays results published

Great Britain Tourism Survey (GBTS) the national survey of domestic overnight stay quarter four (Q4) survey results was published this week alongside the provisional results for 2023.  The headlines figures generally show a decline in trips and value in 2023 as compared to 2022, particular around holiday trips, an especially important trip purpose, for well-established popular rural and urban destinations, not least in the main summer season. This downturn is in line with the mainly anecdotal reports received from our largely well-establish, popular rural and urban inland and coastal destination membership. There are of course outlayers and exceptions to every generalised rule.

The full year results are, as ever, subject to normal review as more information becomes available. Beyond that, this year there are apparently some concerns about the new methodology adopted in 2021 a covid disrupted year and subsequently used for 2022 and 2023. Colleagues will recall that there was no GBTS in 2000 during the peak of the covid restrictions.

As a consequence, the methodology is under review and it is now intended to re-run the 2022 and 2023 results, the first two full post pandemic years, once the review is concluded and the methodology suitable adjusted.  This will impact on GB results and on the subsets for all the Home Nations and English regions, all of which will in due course receive revised statistics for both 2022 and 2023. Receiving revised historic data can be problematic depending on what usage the original has already been put to. Revision is unavoidable and preferable to the alternative options, all of which would involve carrying on regardless and compounding identifiable issues in each subsequent year.

Colleagues will already be aware methodology changes made during the covid period means that post and pre covid (2019 inclusive) GBTS reports and results are not comparable. At best most destination managers view this a regrettable and perhaps a little unhelpful when trying to manage an ongoing post-covid recovery. Again it falls into the unavoidable category as change in methodology was overdue and doing it when tourism was in chaos was a good, if not better, time than any other.

I would urge colleagues reading this year’s report(s) not to skip the “technical stuff” at the head of the document.  The short description of the methodical review, in this instance, is critical to the proper interpretation and understanding of confidence levels.  The more detailed material referenced and linked within it will be of greater use to those more directly involved in the routine use and/or production of local tourism statistics.

The Visit Britain/Visit England (VB/VE) version of the report which majors on GB and English regional results, contains links in its introduction to the VisitScotland and Visit Wales reports which giving a similar GB overview and specific to Home Nation data. 

The VB/VE reports summary states:

• The current data show a decline in 2023 overnight trips by 7% for both Great Britain and England.
• These declines seem to be driven by holiday trips, which dropped by 14%, and represent the second largest share of trips (32% in Britain and 31% in England).
• On the other hand, UK overnight stays as part of an overseas trip show an increase of 14% in Britain and 19% in England (implying an increase in outbound trips).
• In 2023, a city or large town was a destination type with the largest share, 44% in Britain and 45% in England.
• 45% of overnight trips in Britain / England included serviced accommodation.

And the text in the accompanying graphic tables states:

2023 domestic overnight trips in Great Britain.

• 117.3m trips (down 7% vs 2022)
• £30.9bn total spend (down 6% vs 2022 in nominal terms, down 12% in real terms)
• £264 spend per trip (up 1% vs 2022 in nominal terms, down 6% in real terms)

2023 domestic overnight trips in England

• 99.2m trips (down 7% vs 2022)
• £25.7bn total spend (down 7% vs 2022 in nominal terms, down 13% in real terms)
• £259 spend per trip (up 1% vs 2022 in nominal terms, down 6% in real terms)

The statement regarding the methodology review in the full report makes it very clear that there are particular concerns regarding the last quarter of 2023 and the scale of declines reported between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023. It gives the example of a 20% GB decline in overall trips and this being thought to be improbably and not supported by other sources.  As a consequence the Q4, the report focuses almost entirely on the more robust full year results.

The summary makes reference to what I believe is a new category of accommodation usage introduced in 2021, “overnight stays as part of an overseas trip”. I have no recollection of any such a category appearing in or before 2019 GBTS or UKTS before it.  Having noted a 14% decline in holiday trips in bullet point 2, the summary goes on to say in bullet 3: “On the other hand, UK overnight stays as part of an overseas trip show an increase of 14% in Britain and 19% in England (implying an increase in outbound trips)”.

The bracketed comment “implying an increase in outbound trips” is intriguing. We would of course concur with the assessment and would probably go much further, regarding the very obvious negative impact of domestic outbound travel on domestic tourism. 

Personally, I was taken slightly aback by the comment and the use of the word “implies”.  Based largely upon historic experience of the pre 2020 GBTS data sets, I would have reasonably expected colleague in ONS and the Tourist Boards to know what the outbound trip figure might be, or at least what they might be looking like at this point in the year. More importantly I would fully have expect the annual GBTS report to include data and specific comparative comment on domestic outbound trips, as they traditional did pre pandemic.   The absence of such comment in the 2021 and 2022 report, I am embarrassed to say seems to have passed me by until now, although I don’t appear to be alone in this. I am assuming this may be down to covid and post covid disruption and not due to any lack of interest in key national data on my part.

The outbound data, I had erroneously assumed, was derived from the GBTS survey itself, a fault in memory.  On reflection and on checking, I was reminded that it actually comes from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) and was indeed routinely included within the old style GBTS annual reporting.  I also believe that the revised IPS is undergoing similar methodological review and that some of the data recently available is likely to be re-run (?).  I am therefore assuming (hoping) that the absence of domestic out bound data is an implication of the ongoing methodology reviews on both new survey methodologies, rather than any conscious decision made by the tourist boards partnership not to include contextually vital outbound domestic (IPS run by ONS) comparison figure in the new GBTS annual reports. 

Rather than delaying circulating a reminder of the availability of the latest GBTS annual report and some brief comment on the detail until I have bottomed out what is or isn’t occurring with the domestic outbound figures, something which could take days or even weeks, I am publishing the reminder and commentary now.  I do so with some reluctance and apologies in advance to colleagues in ONS and the National Boards. I have no desire to set hares running unnecessarily or to fallout with colleagues whose work I have the greatest admiration for. I am very hopeful that I have either got entirely the wrong end of the stick or that there is a very good, preferably tempory reason why outbound figure aren’t or can’t be included in the new style GBTS reports. 

If, however, it does transpire that the use of outbound domestic tourism figure has been dropped within the GBTS annual reporting process, I would hope that most colleagues and certainly those in destination management, would agree that this would be a serious retrograde step. Denying, as it does, tourism practitioners and lay statistics users’ easy access, to a single source of vital headline data which puts the performance of UK/GB, Home Nation and English regional overnight trips in their full and proper context. It also forms an important part of the lobbying tool box when seeking to evidence the need for appropriate support at differing levels for domestic tourism.

I will let you know what I find out and what, if anything, might need to be done as a result to ensure this information is included in future GBTS annual reports or, failing that, is made available in a comparable form elsewhere.

The 2023 VB/VE report, including links to the other board’s reports can be accessed at:

https://www.visitbritain.org/research-insights/great-britain-domestic-overnight-trips-latest-results